- Colombia has had 20% more rain than normal in the last 12 months
- Lots of blind shoots on roses resulted (much more than normal) because of the weather
- The weather conditions caused a decrease in peak production
- The weather has delayed crops which in turn has delayed shipping
- There are more 40 cm and 50 cm colored roses [not red] present in the markets
- Quality should be excellent, and logistics are expected to stay good [fingers crossed]
- California products like wax flowers and larkspur are late because of the weather
- Tempered optimism seems to be the feeling in the market
- Super Bowl should not hurt Valentine’s day sales [as it did in 2022].
Retail Survey from the Society of American Florists taken Mid-January (source: SAF)
Summary of SAF Pre-Valentine round table discussion with floriculture economist Charlie Hall, Professor and Ellison Chair in International Floriculture at Texas A & M University:
- Inflation rate dropping
- Hoping to see 3-4% by the end of 2024
- Takes at least 6 months for monetary and fiscal policy to work (known as the Lag Effect)
- The supply chain is improving greatly except for eggs, electronic products, appliances, and chips
- Auto prices coming down
- Retail sales falling slightly
- The labor market is strong which is important for retaining quality staff
- Still, a challenge to find good people
- Temporary labor is harder to get
- Wage growth slowing down but has not decreased
- The increase in flower consumption from the pandemic has leveled off and plateaued
- Debt ceiling debate (who knows on this one)
- The end consumer can afford flowers
- Demand is there and hopefully, there will be no other weather issues
- Day-to-day business is slow for many reasons.
Conclusion:
“The anticipated slowdown in economic growth is more about supply scarcity, inflation, and Fed policy, rather than a lack of demand.” Hopefully, this translates into strong flower demand. Also, we wish we could control the weather, so we are doing our anti-storm dances and hoping we avoid any new weather issues this Valentine’s season. (Source: New Bloom Solutions)
Supply Chain Disruption Threatens Mexico Flower Farmers
Since 1973, Chiapas has been a hub for floriculture, but the rising cost of fungicides and fertilizers due to a halt in Russian imports has made greenhouses and flower fields harder to maintain. (Source: Global Press Journal)